Dr. Richard Carmona’s campaign released results of an internal poll this week which is being called into question. The poll shows Carmona leading Flake 45 percent to 41 percent, with Libertarian Marc Victory receiving 5 percent, according to the Yellow Sheet.
The Anzalone Liszt Research poll “dramatically undersampled Republican voters and oversampled independents, skewing the results in Carmona’s favor” according to the Yellow Sheet. The demographics of respondents do not reflect the voting history.
“Since 2004, Republicans have averaged 43.5 percent of the electorate in general elections, Dems have averaged 33 percent and independents have made up nearly 24 percent.” However, the poll sampled 35 percent of the respondents who self-identified as GOP, 30 percent as Dem and 32 percent as independent. Since 2004, independents have never accounted for more than 26 percent of the general electorate in an Arizona election, and Republicans have never made up less than 40 percent.”
Pollsters did not bother to ascertain party registration in homes which were split in terms of registration.
According to the Yellow Sheet, Carmona spokesman Andy Barr refused to comment on the methodology or the disparity in the partisan breakdown.
Carmona’s website continues to tout the poll:
“A new poll conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research shows Dr. Richard Carmona in a statistical tie with less than 6 weeks until Election Day. The poll, commissioned by the Carmona campaign, demonstrates Dr. Carmona still has significant growth potential, while Congressman Jeff Flake has only lukewarm support.
Anzalone Liszt Research conducted 600 live telephone interviews with likely 2012 voters in Arizona. Interviews were conducted between September 18-23, 2012. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for these results is +/- 4.0 percent.”