Tucson, Phoenix Future By The Numbers

When the City of Tucson social media gurus posted on Facebook: “A new forecast from University of Arizona economists predicts Tucson and Arizona will continue to see economic growth over the next decade,” one “friend responded, “Oh yea well my dada got laid off today!! Where is the growth?”

Another “friend” responded, “I pray this is true. Things are sure ugly right now.” Another posted, “can somebody please explain to me where the ‘economic growth’ is happenign? (sic)”

The City’s social media guru was referring to a new forecast from University of Arizona economists at the UA Eller College of Management’s Economic and Business Research Center. While the economists predict that Tucson and Arizona will continue to see economic growth over the next decade, George W. Hammond, Ph.D., Director and Research Professor notes in his report, “Arizona remains on a modest growth track, at least compared to the state’s long-run average. Even so, Arizona continues to add jobs and residents at a faster pace than the nation and most other states.”

Hammond found that “the state has yet to regain pre-recession employment levels. In other words, state jobs are still below the peak established just before the Great Recession. Using data through March 2015, Arizona has recovered 78.1% of the jobs lost during the downturn (Exhibit 1). In contrast, the U.S. has not only replaced all of the jobs lost during the recession, but has added an additional 32.3%.”

According to Hammond, “the Phoenix Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has replaced 84.9% of the jobs lost during the downturn, with Tucson at 52.1% and the rest of the state at 49.0%.”

Tucson’s median wage for all occupations was $32,510 in 2014, which ranked above only San Antonio and El Paso, among the 12 western Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Tucson’s median wage was 21.6% below the median in Denver, which posted the highest wage among the 12 MSAs. Management occupations paid the most in Tucson, at $80,780 while food preparation and serving occupations paid the least, at $19,020. Tucson’s median wage has risen slowly since the end of the Great Recession (in 2009), at 0.5% per year. That was well below the Arizona and national growth rates.

Selected economic forecast numbers for Arizona, Phoenix and Tucson Metros, published by the Economic and Business Research Center, The University of Arizona.