Another Look at the Impact of Obamacare

One of the first criticisms of Obamacare was the serial lie of the administration that if you liked your doctor you could keep your doctor and that if you liked your health plan you could keep your health plan. In fact, six to seven million individuals received letters canceling their health coverage because under Obamacare their plans did not meet spurious minimum requirements.

Another criticism of Obamacare was health care rationing.  The Obama administration denied this adverse impact with yet another lie: limited networks.

Table 1 shows that Obamacare did not even make a dent in the uninsured numbers: there were 42.8 million uninsured in 2008, before Obamacare, and 42.5 million uninsured in 2014 four years after Obamacare, even after spending billions of dollars.

Table 1
Population and Physician Demographics

Year Total  Population Annual Increase Insured Population Annual Increase Uninsured Population Percent of Total Population Annual Increase Insured Population/100,000 Active Physicans Annual increase
2008 304,100,000 261,221,900 42,878,100 14.10% 2,612 781,537
2009 306,800,000 0.89% 257,405,200 -1.46% 49,394,800 16.10% 15.20% 2,574 785,326 0.48%
2010 308,100,000 0.42% 257,571,600 0.06% 50,528,400 16.40% 2.29% 3,081 850,085 8.25%
2011 310,500,000 0.78% 256,473,000 -0.43% 54,027,000 17.40% 6.92% 3,105 864,142 1.65%
2012 312,900,000 0.77% 258,768,300 0.89% 54,131,700 17.30% 0.19% 3,129 878,198 1.63%
2013 315,200,000 0.74% 261,300,800 0.98% 53,899,200 17.10% -0.43% 3,152 897,231 2.17%
2014 317,700,000 0.79% 275,128,200 5.29% 42,571,800 13.40% -21.02% 3,177 916,264 2.12%

Additionally, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) have developed a reputation for “cooking the numbers” when it comes to Obamacare and the uninsured.  Obamacare has consistently failed to meet enrollment forecasts. As recently as 2014, four years after Obamacare was enacted, only one in ten uninsured enrolled in Obamacare (American Thinker, http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2014/03/only_one_in_ten_uninsured_enrolled_in_obamacare_survey.html).

Table 2 delves into physician availability. Note the column “Total Population/Physicians.” This ratio indicates that the number of citizens per physician is decreasing as a result of the physician population increasing over four times faster than the U.S. population from 2008-2014. Additionally, the column “Physicians/100,000 Population” shows a decrease in the number of physicians.  The number of physicians for the Obamacare networks has decreased even further: 20%(http://hotair.com/archives/2016/11/01/number-doctors-participating-obamacare-plummets-nearly-20/).

Table 2
Physician Demographics

Year Total  Population Normalized Data Active Physicans Normalized Data Total Population/Physicians Normalized Data Percent Change Cumulative Change Physicians / 100,000 Population Annual Increase
2008 304,100,000 1.00 781,537 1.00 389 1.00 299.2
2009 306,800,000 1.01 785,326 1.00 391 1.00 0.40% 305.1 1.97%
2010 308,100,000 1.01 850,085 1.09 362 0.93 -7.23% -6.83% 275.9 -9.56%
2011 310,500,000 1.02 864,142 1.11 359 0.92 -0.86% -7.69% 278.3 0.87%
2012 312,900,000 1.03 878,198 1.12 356 0.92 -0.84% -8.53% 280.7 0.85%
2013 315,200,000 1.04 897,231 1.15 351 0.90 -1.40% -9.93% 284.7 1.42%
2014 317,700,000 1.04 916,264 1.17 347 0.89 -1.30% -11.23% 288.4 1.32%
 

 

 

Indeed, in 2010, the year Obamacare was activated, the number of physicians per 100,000 population dropped by almost 10% as a result of adding 50.5 million uninsured to the rolls.  Obamacare added uninsured to the rolls but not doctors and nurses. As a result, adding fifty million more people without adding the medical staff simply spells health care rationing.  And the data shows that as a result of Obamacare, the nation still needs 16.7 physicians for every 100,000 in population in 2014:  16.7 physicians x 3177 population = 53,068 additional physicians needed in 2014 to equal the 2010 305.1 physicians per 100,000 population.

The aging workforce and population were not taken into consideration when Obamacare was considered.  Of the estimated 2.8 million nurses and 900,000 plus physicians currently working, one –third will likely retire in the next decade according to the Heritage Foundation.  Obamacare has not taken any proactive efforts to increase the number of physicians and nurses.

In addition to damaging the health care system, Obamacare also hurt doctors significantly. When the administration deemed Medicare rampant with fraud and “transferred” $716 billion to Obamacare, it drastically reduced reimbursements for doctors. Additionally, Obamacare significantly expanded Medicaid in states that agree to do so but physician reimbursements are so low the majority of physicians refuse to see Medicaid patients. As a result, Obamacare knowingly offered a hollow Medicaid program to the poor. This is truly medical fraud perpetrated by the government.

What is the conclusion? Total numbers of physicians are decreasing while patient population has significantly increased. My own primary care physician told me new appointments are scheduled four to six months in the future. Good luck finding a doctor. Obamacare is slowly destroying Medicare Advantage. Medicaid is a poor substitute for quality health care coverage.

Obamacare is destroying physician reimbursements in the Medicare program.

In addition, of the original twenty-three Obamacare exchanges, just seven are still standing but all of them lost money last year. The prognosis for the seven to survive 2017 is not good. What is the cost so far to the taxpayer for the exchanges? $1.7 billion  (http://www.forbes.com/sites/sallypipes/2016/07/25/obamacares-co-op-disaster-an-unfunny-comedy-of-errors/#463c4817c91f).

Major health plans, such as United Health Care, are beginning to back away from Obamacare due to unsustainable losses. Younger, healthy people are not signing up for Obamacare for two reasons: first, paying the penalty is cheaper than paying the increasing premiums of Obamacare; second, of the 18-34 year old cohort that was supposed to offset the health costs of older citizens, the 18-26 year old subset was allowed to stay on their parents health plan meaning no premium coming in for about half of the critical cohort. As a result, health plans raise premiums, which drives healthy people away, leaving sicker people in the plans that cost more. The result: higher losses.

We are six years into Obamacare and enrollment is substantially below forecasts. The largest tax increases in American history accompanied Obamacare. It still doesn’t work. It is slowly imploding. The death spiral is palpable. The only people who cannot see it are radical Democrats, the Socialists, who unilaterally foisted this terrible law on the American people.

The Obama administration admits that premium for Obamacare plans, on average, will increase by 25% across the nation. In Arizona, expect 116% increases. Health insurers are incurring huge losses. In October 2015, federal regulators announced the risk corridor program will reimburse health insurers only 12.6% of their losses. Why? Obamacare did not take in enough money in premiums to provide the loss reimbursement.

Nancy Pelosi was stated that Obamacare had to be passed “so we can find out what’s in it.”  Now, after six year of failure and wasted tax dollars, we can see the truth.

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