On Monday, the Trump campaign announced the selection of the Phoenix Convention Center as the site for his speech on Wednesday in Arizona on immigration. At the same time, a poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights was released showing that Clinton and Trump are in a neck and neck race in Arizona.
In a survey of 728 likely Democrat, Republican, Independent and Non-Declared voters across Arizona, based on projected 2016 general election turnout, Democrat Hillary Clinton is leading by 1 percent, which is well within the margin of error over Republican Donald Trump.
| 2016 Arizona General Election | August 25-27, 2016 Results |
| Hillary Clinton | 40% |
| Donald Trump | 39% |
| Gary Johnson | 7% |
| Jill Stein | 1% |
| Undecided | 13% |
*Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding
In the last six presidential contests, Arizona was won by a Republican five times. The last Democratic candidate to carry Arizona was Bill Clinton two decades ago in 1996.
“Donald Trump continues to slowly increase his numbers, coming to a near virtual tie here in Arizona,” Mike Noble, managing partner of OH Predictive Insights and chief pollster, said. “Typically, during an election year, Arizona gets little-to-no attention in a presidential contest but this election year appears to be an enigma.”
“Hillary Clinton’s Democratic vote is more consolidated compared to Donald Trump’s Republican vote, 83 to 73 percent,” said Mike Noble. “Surprisingly, the gender gap between the two candidates is nearly non-existent in Arizona, with Clinton leading Trump by 4 percent with female voters.”
Methodology: This survey employed live callers and automated phones which was completed by OH Predictive Insights on August 25-27, 2016, from a 2016 general election sample. Poll was weighted to reflect likely general election turnout. The sample size was 728 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.63% with 23% cell phones/ 77% landlines.