The Phoenix Valley is ranked #4 in overall projected job growth in a recent study by Careerbuilder. The report found that the area has an overt attitude that welcomes and facilitates business and entrepreneurship. Phoenix is expected to have an 8 percent rate of change in the next 4 years, and they anticipate the growth of high-wage jobs while Tucson is expected to grow low wage jobs.
Job growth in the United States, from 2013 through 2017, is projected to grow at a rate slightly faster than the preceding post-recession years, but for certain occupations and metropolitan areas.
In their report, CareerBuilder and Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) explored projections over a five-year period by occupation, wage group and education level for the U.S. and the 52 largest metropolitan areas.
The U.S. workforce is projected to grow 4.4 percent from 2013 to 2017 – faster than the 2009 to 2013 period (3.5 percent), but still down from the pre-recession 2003 to 2007 period (5.8 percent). The strongest projected growth is often found in occupations supporting the health care and energy industries, or occupations related to information technology.
The study looked at the trends in cities from New York (estimated pop. 19.2 million) to Tucson (estimated pop. 1 million). After D.C., Seattle and Boston are the only other two metros where half or more of news jobs are projected to be high-wage. Meanwhile, Tucson – one of the top metros in overall job growth – is expected to see the second-lowest share of high-wage growth behind Detroit, at 26 percent.
Key findings:
• At 5 percent, high-wage occupations ($21.14 and above) are expected to grow faster than low-wage ($13.83 and below) and medium-wage ($13.84-$21.13) occupations (4.7 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively). Of the 165 occupations projected to lose jobs, 75 percent are in the medium-wage category. With occupations in the middle of the wage spectrum growing at a slower pace, the projections support the popular argument that the labor market is becoming increasingly polarized between high- and low-wage jobs.
• Occupations requiring college degrees are growing significantly faster than those that do not. Sixty-one percent of occupations expected to grow by 8 percent or more require a college degree. Associate degree and master’s degree occupations are each projected to grow 8 percent, while jobs requiring short-term on-the-job training trail at 4 percent. Bachelor’s degree jobs are projected to grow 6 percent.
• 23 of the 52 largest metro areas outpace the projected national rate of job growth, led by three in Texas (Austin, Houston, San Antonio); Raleigh, NC and Phoenix, AZ. Washington, D.C. is poised to have the largest share of new jobs coming from the high-wage sector, but San Antonio is expected have the fastest rate of high-wage growth.